Another long offseason is in the review mirror, and a lot has happened in the six months since we’ve last seen the Rockies take the field at Coors. The Broncos won the Super Bowl, Leo won an Oscar and Full House got fuller and even more awful. In the baseball world, the Diamondbacks acquired Zack Greinke and Shelby Miller, and the Cubs built a team with a considerable chance at finally breaking the curse by signing Jason Heyward, John Lackey and Ben Zobrist.
But despite the action elsewhere, things in the world of the Colorado Rockies was notably quiet. After a year in which they traded Troy Tulowitzki, some expected the Rockies to come into the offseason much more active and dealing assets like outfielders Carlos Gonzalez or Charlie Blackmon.
There were certainly some ripples in the water, the most notable being the trade that sent Corey Dickerson to the Tampa Bay Rays. With Spring Training upon us, let’s take a look back at the offseason that was, the speculation that wasn’t, and where it leaves the team heading into the 2016 season.
Offseason Moves and Acquisitions
Bettering The Bullpen
The bullpen was undoubtedly where the most significant changes were made during the offseason. J.J. Buck has already presented a strong breakdown of the new faces in the bullpen this season, so this section will remain brief. The buttressing began with the acquisitions of Jason Motte and Chad Qualls for $10 million and $6 million, respectively.
Motte is struggling to recover the dominance he exhibited in the 2012 season as the Cardinals’ primary closer, when he notched 42 saves with a 3.12 FIP and 10.75 K/9 rate. Tommy John surgery in 2013 robbed some control and velocity, leading to a noticeably higher FIP (3.61), though it was reassuring to see some of his speed recover and walk rates remain low.
Qualls, an affable personality who will likely provide his share of quips throughout the season, comes to the team with a year left on his contract. The journeyman has pitched all over the league, filling out the backend of bullpens with the ability to work several innings. As Purple Row writer Bobby DeMuro points out, he has been a workhorse through his career, though the Rockies are hoping he won’t hit a wall in productivity in his 13th season in the majors.
No More #Dickmania
Corey Dickerson, as Drew Goodman is fond of saying, can get up and hit on Christmas morning. But he will no longer be doing it as a Rockie. By far the most significant move of the offseason came in January when Dickerson was shipped to the Tampa Bay Rays in exchange for two new arms: Jake McGee and German Marquez.
Marquez is the more interesting of the two, a high-A prospect who was ranked 25th in the Rays’ system before coming over to Colorado (MLB Pipeline listed him 17th in the Rockies’ organization) who matches exactly the mold of pitcher Jeff Bridich seems to be looking for. He can maintain a velocity of 92-94 MPH, reaching up to 96, and exhibits control with a 1.9 BB/9 rate. It’s very similar to the other pitchers we have seen Bridich acquire, including Jeff Hoffman in the Tulowitzki trade. Wherever the Rockies go in the next few years, we know one thing: Bridich is waging a war on walks.
But Marquez remains a year or two from making his appearance at the major league level, and hopefully during that time he can develop the polish to eventually fill out the middle of the Rockies’ rotation, which is where the most optimistic projections put him.
Also involved was Jake McGee, who posted a 2.41 ERA in 37.1 innings last year and whiffed batters at a 11.6 SO/9 rate. It’s rare the Rockies can send a man in from the bullpen who inspires confidence at keeping or maintaining a lead, but McGee will be that guy. There is a good chance he will fill as the Rockies’ closer, at least until Adam Ottavino makes his return and proves his health.
The question becomes whether McGee will stay in purple in a season where it is widely acknowledged the Rockies will not be competitive. McGee is the kind of guy you keep around in a year in which you compete, not who you acquire to strengthen a bullpen in a lost year with so many other holes to fill on the field. There’s a chance he will be traded at deadline if the right offer comes along.
Adding Depth
Lack of depth has been a highly recognized issue with the team for a few seasons now; when someone (inevitably) goes down, the options for replacement trend as someone just at or below replacement level. The team seemed to try to shore up at least a couple of those gaps this offseason with the acquisitions of Gerardo Parra and Mark Reynolds.
Parra was certainly a name that raised a few eyebrows, since the team (at the time) had three starters in Charlie Blackmon, Corey Dickerson and Carlos Gonzalez. But with the trade of Dickerson, Parra will start in left field while occasionally filling in for Charlie Blackmon in center, according to Thomas Harding. He will provide a consistent, solid left handed bat and above average defense at the corners, and comes with the added benefit of a history of health: he has played in 461 of 486 games since 2013. That’s a reassurance the Rockies could certainly do with. His offensive production has dipped over the past couple of seasons, but he should still provide an average at or above .270 while also seeing some aided power from playing at Coors (he reached 14 home runs last year).
First base seems to be a perennial question mark, if not in the spring by the mid-season. This year, Ben Paulson will be splitting time with Mark Reynolds, who signed a one-year deal with the team for $2.6 million. While Paulsen has proved capable at first, he batted .235 against left handed pitchers in 2015 with a .265 slugging percentage. Reynolds, a right-handed bat, will likely earn starts against a majority of left-handed pitchers. He slashed .230/.315/.398 last year with St. Louis, and can be expected to strike out a lot, but will provide a bit of power.
This is a signing with few implications down the road. Reynolds is on an inexpensive one-year contract, and in no way indicates the longer-term plan at first base or for the team. He’ll play somewhere around 70 games and fill a gap in what will, in all likelihood, be a filler year.
Spring Storylines
With the early days of Spring Training underway, there are a few exciting storylines fans should be keeping an eye out for later into the month during a period which will have more significant reverberations for the season than in the past couple of years.
Most crucial is the starting shortstop job, which is particularly in question while the team waits for a decision from MLB on Jose Reyes, who was arrested for domestic assault in October. While the length of Reyes’ suspension is yet to be decided by MLB and Rob Manfred, it can be expected that it will be a significant amount of time before he sees baseball action, if at all this year.
This opens the door for Trevor Story, ranked a top-10 prospect who has been developing through the minor league system since 2011. With a strong performance through Spring Training, he has a chance to start the season on the 25-man roster. Story was promoted to AAA last year, where he slashed a solid .277/.324/.504 after a striking AA performance at .281/.373/.523. Story will likely fall into the starting role before long, and should provide pop and speed in the lineup. It’s likely the club will have him start in AAA to keep his service clock from starting, but it’s nevertheless an interesting spring storyline to keep an eye on.
Meanwhile, several touted prospects are making their appearances this spring as part of the non-roster invitees. In particular, look out for the performance of the now spleen-free David Dahl, who may be in line for a breakout season with health. Hopes for Dahl are high, and this will be his first extended time in the cactus league.
Touted pitchers Kyle Freeland and Jeff Hoffman will be making appearances as well, and it will be a great chance to get a look at two pitchers expected to take future spots in the rotation, projected possibly as high as a 2 or 3 spot. For Freeland, there are numerous health answers to answer after last season as well, and a strong Spring Training can be the first step to putting those doubts behind him. Don’t expect to be seeing them, Dahl or a majority of NRIs breaking with the camp after the spring, but this is the time to begin becoming acquainted with some of the fastest rising stars of the Rockies’ stellar farm system.
The Year Ahead
Last week, Jeff Sullivan of Fangraphs asked fans to vote in representation of their team in a fan excitement poll. Somewhat unsurprisingly, the Rockies ranked the fifth lowest in the final results for fan excitement for 2016. Entering what is already acknowledged as a growing year after a quiet offseason, it’s easy to see why fans’ enthusiasm for the upcoming season would be tempered.
In an offseason where so little really happened, the things that did speak much louder. Bridch’s decision to keep players like Carlos Gonzalez and the signing of players like Gerardo Parra show that he thinks the team will be able to compete sooner rather than later. Popular opinion has the team ready to make a move in the division in the next few years, as minor league talent arrives and ripens. But the decisions against rebuilding on a larger level, and trading more valuable current assets to the team, show Bridich may believe he can compete with something close to what he has.
Regardless of what happens, this will be consequential year for a team, especially entering the midseason and seeing what deals are (or are not) made at this year’s trade deadline. If the offseason is an indication, it could mean there are less moves made this year than most fans would have anticipated after the departure of Troy Tulowitzki and the beginning of a new era of Rockies baseball. While the team can be expected to struggle again this year, and will likely finish low in the division, it will be a more definite signal of if, and when, we can expect the return of a contending team in Colorado.
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